The INTERNATIONAL RESEARCH INSTITUTE for CLIMATE PREDICTION (IRI)
Antonio Divino Moura
Former Director General of IRI and current Director of Instituto Nacional de Meteorologia (INMET)
Until beginning of 1980s, understanding and predicting inter-annual climate variations was thought to be a
quite difficult scientific task. But, this situation has changed quite significantly and the international
scientific community now has a growing capacity to predict climate anomalies on seasonal to inter-annual
scales. The new ability to forecast climate variability with improved accuracy undoubtedly represents an
important scientific breakthrough as a legacy of the TOGA/WCRP 10-year program. Climate predictions have
the potential to be important contributors to broader efforts by poorer tropical countries to cope with
impacts of climate vagaries. Better manage such key climate sensitive sectors as agriculture, water
resources, health, fisheries can now be set in place with potentially very significant gains. Skillful
climate forecasts can also help advance environmentally sustainable development since adaptation and
mitigation on seasonal-to-inter-annual time scales will prove critical in learning how to adapt and
mitigate longer-term climate change as well.
A key institution that the international community has at its disposal to address these changes is the
International Research Institute for Climate Prediction (IRI) which is part of Columbia University's Earth
Institute. Its vision is that of an innovative science institution working with a network of
collaborating partners to accelerate the abilities of societies worldwide to cope climate fluctuations.
Its mission is "to enhance society's ability to understand, anticipate and manage the impacts of seasonal
climate fluctuations, in order to improve human welfare and the environment, especially in developing
countries".
Illustration of how the IRI operates in terms of its monthly probabilistic climate forecasts for the
whole globe and particularly for the Tropics will be shown with emphasis on application of these products
in Northeast Brazil and West Africa. Examples will be given for water management, agriculture and early
warning systems for public health (dengue fever and malaria).
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